METHOD OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS CONSTRUCTION USING BAYES ANALYSIS

Abstract

The article provides analysis of the existing approaches and methods of scenario building for modeling various processes. The most common scenario types are reviewed, as well as their implementation conditions. The relevance of particular method usage for different problems solving is described. The requirements that should be met so that modeling is trustworthy for the particular task are analyzed, and the possibilities of using scenario approach alongside with Bayesian networks are defined